MUSE: A novel Integrated Assessment Model

With more innovative low-carbon technologies, increasing energy demands and the threat of climate change, the energy and land use systems are constantly evolving. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are used to make sense of these complexities, and study how changes can be managed. Currently, these tools are used to assess progress in fulfilling global efforts to curb climate change, exploring which sectors in the economy have the largest potential to limit regional or global emissions. A key challenge is to complement the viewpoints of such models, including model real-world decision making which is based on an imperfect knowledge of the future commodity prices and demand.

This seminar will present MUSE (ModUlar energy system Simulation Environment), a new IAM framework developed at Imperial College London. It simulates energy systems and land use transitions over long time horizons, with a partial equilibrium on the energy system provided by iterative microeconomic supply-demand market clearing for each energy commodity. It models the whole energy system (i.e. including demand, transformation/conversion and supply sectors) with a high degree of technical detail and simulates the behaviour of real investors under different scenarios. Results will focus on analysing the effects of carbon-constrained policies on the global energy system as well as forecasting the replacement of the existing technologies and fuel switching.

Speaker

Dr Ivan Garcia Kerdan holds a PhD in Energy and Engineering from the Energy Institute at University College London and currently he is a Research Associate in the Sustainable Gas Institute (SGI) at Imperial College London. He is part of the SGI modelling team working in MUSE, a whole systems recursive dynamic model of energy system and land use transitions covering all sectors of the economy.  Additionally he is working in the Newton Fund Project: Sustainable Gas Pathways for Brazil; from Microcosm to Macrocosm, a collaboration project between Imperial College London and University of Sao Paolo. The research focuses on the justification for expanding various types of gas infrastructure in Brazil by investigating the role of natural gas, alongside bio-methane sources, within the Brazilian energy matrix.