Net Zero Australia: Groundbreaking study charts Australia’s energy future
Final results offer maps and models for a decarbonised economy by 2050
Australia will need to triple the power capacity of its National Electricity Market, rapidly roll out renewables, and consider all viable energy options to decarbonise its economy and exports by 2050, new research results show.
The Net Zero Australia study, a groundbreaking multi-year study into how Australia can achieve a net zero emissions economy, released its final modelling results in Brisbane and online at a public launch on 19 April.
The results trace pathways to net zero, giving a detailed breakdown of possible scenarios and sensitivities, and offering comprehensive mapping of the transition to net zero emissions.
“Our results are unprecedented in their detail, rigour and transparency,” said Net Zero Australia Project Chair and Emeritus Professor Robin Batterham ahead of the launch. “We are not pushing a preferred pathway, rather we are illustrating a range of potential pathways.”
Professor Michael Brear, Director of the Melbourne Energy Institute and a Project Director for Net Zero Australia, said that the task of reaching net zero will mean considering all viable options for a clean energy transition.
“Renewables and electrification, supported by a major expansion of transmission lines and storage, are keys to net zero,” he commented.
“But we will need an all-technology, hands-on-deck approach. That includes a large increase in permanent carbon storage, deep underground and in vegetation, and a doubling of gas-fired power capacity to support renewables and energy storage.”
Major findings from the study chart the scale and pace of change needed for a decarbonised energy future by 2050, offering insights into how different scenarios could play out.
Results suggest that to reach net zero, renewables must grow to become Australia’s main domestic and export energy source, at 40 times the capacity of the current National Electricity Market. As renewables roll out, they can be supported by a large fleet of batteries, pumped hydro, and a low and declining use of gas power.
Powerlines carrying renewable energy and pipelines carrying hydrogen, CO2 and desalinated water must be greatly expanded across the continent. Development for export industries will be needed mainly in northern Australia – across Western Australia, Queensland and the Northern Territory – though production could also take place in the south.
Reduced emissions from livestock and expanded revegetation could move our land sector towards net zero, but will not be able to contribute to net offsets.
And in all scenarios, extensive engagement and coordination will be needed to address the impacts and opportunities of land-use changes for Traditional Owners, low-income households, farming communities, fossil fuel regions and biodiversity.
The cost of the transition is estimated at around $7-9 trillion invested in domestic energy and industrial infrastructure by 2060, around six times the business-as-usual amount.
With the final results now made public, the next step for the project will be to investigate how to jump-start the transition to net zero. A mobilisation report, due to launch in June this year, aims to provide an evidence base for the actions needed by governments, businesses and the public to steer Australia toward a net zero emissions future.
Net Zero Australia is a partnership of The University of Melbourne, The University of Queensland, Princeton University’s Andlinger Center for Energy and Environment, and international management consultancy Nous Group.
The project is overseen by a Steering Committee chaired by Professor Batterham, a former Chief Scientist of Australia. Other members include Professor Brear, energy industry expert Katherin Domansky, Associate Professor Simon Smart from The University of Queensland, and Richard Bolt, a Principal at Nous Group.
An Advisory Group for the study includes nominees from the Australian Conservation Foundation, the Australian Council of Trade Unions, the Climate Council, Energy Consumers Australia, the Ethics Centre, the National Farmers Federation, the National Native Title Council, St Vincent de Paul, three independent members, and nominees from each of the sponsoring organisations.
Sponsors include Worley, Dow, Future Energy Exports Cooperative Research Centre (FEnEx CRC), APA Group and the Minderoo Foundation, as well as the Future Fuels Cooperative Research Centre (FFCRC).
Photo courtesy of The University of Queensland