The solar age has arrived

After decades of massive growth, solar is now generating 6% of the world’s electricity, with predictions this could reach up to 80%, in some markets, in the coming decade. As solar technologies continue to advance, with increasing efficiency and decreasing cost, new investment means Australia is in a prime position to turn its solar smarts into highly sought after products.

The rise of solar has been little short of meteoric.

Installed solar capacity is growing ten-fold each decade. In 2022, we reached 1 terawatt of installed solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity, 68 years after getting started. In the next two years, we doubled it, reaching 2 terawatts by 2024.

The annual growth rate of installed PV capacity continues to surpass expectations, with an 87% increase in 2023 and a projected 33% growth in 2024.

Projections indicate that PV will significantly contribute to our future energy mix worldwide, expected to supply between 50% to 80% of electricity demand in the coming decade.

It’s a trajectory that has been steep, sustained, and shows no signs of slowing. And it’s a market in which Australian research and innovation stands to be hugely influential, with benefits for our domestic economy, local jobs, as well as for global emissions reductions.

Falling costs fueling solar growth

What’s driving this huge take-up of solar worldwide? The low-cost, clean energy photovoltaics can provide.

Since it was first unveiled over 70 years ago, very few could have guessed the rapid rate at which the cost of solar PV would tumble.

Over the past two decades, extensive research and substantial investments in manufacturing have led to a dramatic reduction in the price of solar modules – falling from $20/W to $0.20/W since 2000. This has made silicon solar PV now our most cost-effective form of energy generation.

Associate Professor Wallace Wong, Energy Materials research program leader at the Melbourne Energy Institute.

The affordability of solar PV has led to its widespread adoption across Australia, as the country progresses towards its legislated emissions targets and beyond.

Australia now has the highest solar PV capacity, per capita, anywhere in the world.

Several studies, including the groundbreaking Net Zero Australia project, predict that solar PV will continue to grow and become a major, or even the main, form of electricity generation globally.

Solar PV R&D is a golden opportunity for home-grown innovation

For many decades, Australian research has been leading the way in solar PV, particularly in silicon-based photovoltaics. It’s a position supported by the 2013 establishment of the Australian Centre for Advanced Photovoltaics (ACAP). Funded by ARENA (the Australian Renewable Energy Agency), the centre brings together leading solar research institutes from across the country. The University of Melbourne is one of these, selected for its expertise in emerging PV materials and devices, including a particular focus on thin film printed solar photovoltaics.

Over the past decade, ACAP has accelerated Australia’s PV technology development, increasing performance and reducing costs. Its work has seen domestically-conceived silicon PV technologies integrated into commercial panels, many times over.

ACAP has also boosted our domestic solar PV research and development capability, with its investments preparing hundreds of graduates for academia and industry.

University of Melbourne's Dr. James Bullock, is one of the centre’s success stories. A PhD student at ACAP’s inception, he is now an Associate Professor in engineering at the University of Melbourne and continues to be part of the ACAP investigator team.

“Our team’s research is focused on high-efficiency, silicon photovoltaic architectures, and more recently, tandem photovoltaics,” Associate Professor Bullock said.

“It’s a field which is incredibly dynamic at the moment. New device architectures can move from lab-scale demonstrations to commercial reality in just a few years. It makes it an exciting time to be innovating for an industry that is so readily adopting change,” he said.

A leading silicon PV technology, known as tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) architecture, advanced from the research laboratory to market in just five years. These so-called “TOPCon” panels now constitute more than half of modules manufactured today, having displaced their predecessor incredibly fast.

“The TOPCon technology has shown how rapidly production lines can be upgraded. That’s hugely promising for PV researchers, knowing that their next breakthroughs in performance, or in reducing costs, can so readily find their way to market,” said Associate Professor Bullock.

The Federal Government’s $1 billion Solar Sunshot Program increases opportunities for Australian PV innovation to achieve commercial outcomes. Set up in 2024, the program is designed to support the commercialisation of Australian solar PV innovations and enhance domestic solar PV supply chains.

“These investments in research and industry provide foundations for the anticipated dominance of solar PV in the energy market by 2050,” said Associate Professor Wallace Wong, Energy Materials program lead at the Melbourne Energy Institute.

University of Melbourne research supports the rise of the solar age

Research programs at the University of Melbourne, including synthesis and characterisation capability, are currently showing success in identifying novel materials for solar PV. In addition, the university has a track record in solar light harvesting technologies, such as multi-exciton generation, photon upconversion, and solar concentration, that enhance PV performance.

“The University of Melbourne sees solar PV as a strategic research stream. Through the Melbourne Energy Institute, the university is supporting the right connections across faculties and with industry, so new research can find its way quickly into this rapidly-evolving, and fast-growing, industry,” said Associate Professor Wong.

For more information

• Read more about Energy Materials research being delivered across the University of Melbourne.
• Learn more about Associate Professor Wallace Wong’s research.
• Learn more about Associate Professor James Bullock’s research.