Too hot to mine: How climate change is disrupting mineral extraction for cleaner energy
Reliable, site-specific data is key to making mining more resilient to a changing climate – and more sustainable in limiting its climate impacts.
The global push to decarbonise depends on a dramatic increase in the supply of critical minerals such as copper, lithium, nickel and manganese. To meet projected demand for renewable energy, electric vehicles and storage technologies, mining of these materials may need to expand two-to-fivefold by 2050.
But a growing and largely overlooked threat to this expansion of mineral extraction might be climate change itself.
New research from the University of Melbourne's Dr Tim Werner shows that extreme heat, flooding, drought and storms are already disrupting mining operations around the world. And the risks are intensifying.
We found extraction of the very minerals needed to address global warming will be increasingly impeded by the extreme weather that accompanies climate change.
Dr Tim Werner, Senior Lecturer, Responsible Mining and Energy Transition, University of Melbourne
Deputy Program Leader, Heavy Industry and Resources, Melbourne Energy Institute
Extreme weather making mining harder
The research examined a representative set of 1,642 medium and large-scale mines that produce minerals essential for energy-transition technologies. By 2050, 90 per cent of these sites are projected to face rising temperatures.
In many regions, the number of days exceeding 35°C, considered hazardous for outdoor work, is expected to increase sharply. In parts of South Africa, where 37 per cent of the world’s manganese is produced, some mines could face more than 80 days per year above this threshold by mid-century.
“Heat directly affects worker safety and productivity,” said Dr Werner.
“Reducing shift lengths or stopping work during peak heat protects people, but it can also reduce output unless adaptation measures are put in place.”
Extreme rainfall is also projected to intensify. The study found that 62 per cent of the mining sites reviewed were likely to experience higher annual precipitation by 2050. Many of these were across the central Andes in Peru, Bolivia and northern Argentina, including areas historically thought of as being water-scarce.
Of these sites, 94 per cent could see increases in one-day maximum rainfall, heightening the risk of flash flooding and infrastructure damage.
Recent events show this is not a distant problem.
Flooding in Queensland has submerged mining equipment and cut off access roads, while drought in Chile has strained water supplies for both communities and copper operations.
Over the past decade, excessive rainfall has cost Australian copper mines an estimated AU$3 billion. Without adaptation, projected losses from heavy precipitation alone could reach AU$7.5 billion by 2050. This is equivalent to around 50,000 tonnes of copper that would otherwise support clean energy technologies.
Interrupting the supply chain
Mining does not operate in isolation. Sites depend on water, electricity, fuel, railways, ports and processing facilities, all of which are vulnerable to climate hazards.
In early 2025, Cyclone Alfred disrupted transport links to Mount Isa in Queensland, forcing copper mines to reduce production even though the mine sites themselves were not damaged.
“Climate risk runs along the entire supply chain,” said Dr Werner.
“If roads, rail or ports fail, production stalls. We need to think beyond the mine gate.”
A constrained mineral supply could slow the global energy transition, increase costs and deepen social tensions in mining regions already under pressure.
Closing critical data gaps
A major barrier to resilience is the lack of reliable, site-specific data. Fewer than half of the world’s mines have comprehensive public information about their location, scale, production, infrastructure or waste-storage facilities.
To manage risk, we need to understand it. That means better data on where mines are, how they operate and how they intersect with local ecosystems and communities.
Dr Tim Werner, Senior Lecturer, Responsible Mining and Energy Transition, University of Melbourne
Climate models can project future temperature and rainfall extremes, but they need to be combined with detailed local knowledge and operational data to inform practical adaptation plans.
This requires closer collaboration between researchers, mining companies and communities.
“The focus of my research is on enabling sustainable mineral supply for the energy transition, while minimising societal and environmental costs associated with mining them”, Dr Werner said.
“To tackle the issue of mining sustainability we need to understand site-specific impacts. Increasingly this goes both ways: understanding the potential environmental repercussions from mining, as well as the predicted impacts of a changing climate on its operations.
“My work does this by mapping impacts to inform more responsible, and resilient, mining practices,” he said.
Embedding climate risk into decision-making
To manage the increasingly present consequences of a changing climate, miners can introduce climate-risk assessments at every stage of their operations, from exploration and planning through to closure and rehabilitation.
Some large operations have begun investing in adaptation.
For example, the Escondida copper mine in Chile has built a major desalination plant to secure long-term water supply in the arid Atacama Desert. However, many smaller operators lack the resources or regulatory incentives to plan for long-term climate impacts.
“Too often adaptation is reactive, responding after a flood or heatwave,” Dr Werner said.
We need to shift to anticipatory planning, where climate risk is built into mine design, infrastructure and governance from the outset.
Dr Tim Werner, Senior Lecturer, Responsible Mining and Energy Transition, University of Melbourne
The research also highlights the importance of financial and regulatory reform, including clearer disclosure of climate risks, stronger environmental licensing requirements and setting aside funds to manage climate-related damage after mine closure.
A just and resilient transition
More than half of the minerals needed for the energy transition intersect with lands used or occupied by Indigenous and land-connected peoples. To be just, sustainability and adaptation measures should be co-designed with affected communities, giving them a say and benefiting from their local experience.
“Efforts to protect the energy transition must not exacerbate impacts on people,” Dr Werner said.
“Resilience planning has to put communities and ecosystems at the centre,” he said.
A major emitter and a cornerstone of decarbonisation
The long-term viability of mineral mining in a warming world will depend on how effectively it integrates climate science into operations, governance and community engagement.
Its capacity to curtail the climate impacts is similarly based on access to specific data on what those impacts are.
“If we fail to strengthen the resilience of critical-mineral supply chains, the energy transition itself is at risk,” Dr Werner said.
“Generating accurate site-specific knowledge, embedding it into policy and sustaining long-term monitoring will be essential to securing a clean and equitable future,” he said.
Read more:
“Climate change is devastating mining of minerals needed to fight it.”, Nature (2025).
"Impacts for half of the world’s mining areas are undocumented.”, Pursuit (2024)
“Patterns of infringement, risk, and impact driven by coal mining permits in Indonesia.”, Ambio (2024)
“Global mining footprint mapped from high-resolution satellite imagery.”, Communications, Earth & Environment (2023)
For more information, contact the University of Melbourne’s Dr Tim T. Werner.
Dr Tim T. Werner is a Senior Lecturer in the School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Faculty of Science, and Deputy Program Leader, Heavy Industry and Resources, Melbourne Energy Institute at the University of Melbourne. His work examines the environmental and social dimensions of resource extraction and the energy transition, with a focus on critical minerals, material recycling and responsible supply chains.